Droughts to linger, report says
Climate change seen as disastrous for state.
By
John Sutter
Staff Writer
|
Saturday,
February 3, 2007 |
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NORMAN
— A major international report released Friday says human emissions of heat-trapping
greenhouse gases are "very likely" the cause of observed global
climate change.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report — intended to be the world's most comprehensive analysis of climate change to date — states temperatures are expected to rise between about 3 and 7 degrees by the end of the century.
That could
mean disastrous consequences for Oklahoma, according to the state's leading
climatologist.
At a panel
discussion in Norman on Friday, Oklahoma Climatological Survey Director Kenneth
Crawford said the human-induced warming trend means Oklahoma could be hit with
future droughts that are stronger and last longer than the Dust Bowl, as well
as water scarcity issues so extreme that some towns in southern Oklahoma may
not be able to survive.
Climate
change, as analyzed by the panel, "will give us the possibility that
droughts will last decades as opposed to five or eight years, as they have in
past times," Crawford said.
He advocated
urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and plan for major water
shortages — or what he called "a strategy of least regret."
According to
the panel, warming can be significantly slowed by 2100 if quick action is taken
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But the warming trend is likely to continue
for centuries, and climate change over the next two or three decades is almost
guaranteed.
90
percent confidence
The climate
change panel is made up of more than 2,500 scientists that is called by the
United Nations to summarize available climate change research. The first part
of its fourth report was released Friday at a conference in Paris. Its
statements are reviewed by hundreds of scientists from around the world.
The 21-page
preliminary report was approved by representatives from more than 130
countries, including the United States.
Friday's
report brought new certainty to the notion that greenhouse gases —
spewing out of smokestacks and tailpipes around the world — are causing
the planet to heat up at an unprecedented pace.
The report
says seas will continue to rise and warm, which could crowd costal towns, hurt
marine life and ensure the warming trend continues, as ocean temperatures shift
more slowly than air temperatures.
Oklahoma
In Oklahoma,
water scarcity and severe weather are of greatest concern, scientists at the
panel discussion in Norman said.
Mark Shafer,
director of climate information at the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, said it
would be prudent for Oklahomans to prepare now for the lack of water and more
intense severe weather events that may be coming.
He
specifically mentioned ice storms, wildfires and droughts, all of which have
been seen in recent years.
Crawford
said the state's comprehensive water plan — now being discussed in state
government — should include language addressing climate change.
In warmer
temperatures, water will evaporate more quickly, he said, which will drain
reservoirs and groundwater supplies. Agriculture also will be hit with negative
effects, he said.
Greenhouse
effect
Global
climate change is a process by which the atmosphere heats up as it becomes
saturated with greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide and methane.
Carbon
dioxide is being pumped into the atmosphere at an unprecedented rate, the
report finds.
KEY FINDINGS
Here's a
brief look at main findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
report:
THE CAUSE:
Global warming is "very likely" caused by humans - the strongest
conclusion to date. Concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the
planet's atmosphere "have increased markedly as a result of human
activities since 1750," mainly from the use of fossil fuels like oil, gas
and coal, and because of agriculture.
THE OUTLOOK:
Hotter temperatures and rises in sea level "would continue for
centuries" no matter how much humans control their pollution. It is
"very likely" that heat waves, hot weather and heavy rainfalls could
become more frequent. Toward the end of the century, sea ice in the Arctic may
disappear "almost entirely" in summer.
TEMPERATURE
CHANGE: Predicted temperature rises of 2-11.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the year
2100. That was a wider range than in the 2001 report. However, the panel also
said its best estimate was for temperature rises of 3.2-7.1 degrees Fahrenheit.
In 2001, all the panel gave was a range of 2.5-10.4 degrees Fahrenheit.
SEA LEVELS:
Projects rises of 7-23 inches by the end of the century. An additional 3.9-7.8
inches are possible if recent, surprising, melting of polar ice sheets
continues.
HURRICANES:
An increase in hurricane and tropical cyclone strength since 1970 "more
likely than not" can be attributed to human-made global warming.
The
Associated Press